And the rest is history, literally.
In the United Kingdom mass education spurred on by the extension of the vote in 1867 led to sharp declines in fertility and rapid economic growth. Between 1870 and 1930, British fertility dropped from 5 to 2 children and real GDP per capita more than doubled.
A century later investments in mass education underwrote the extraordinary development performance of countries like Sri Lanka and Costa Rica, and the State of Kerala in India. Caldwell argues that the dramatic improvements in health achieved by these countries were the result of a more educated public able to take advantage of new health information, products and services (Caldwell, 1986 and 1990).
But what about the countries still struggling to catch up in the development stakes – those at the bottom of the Human Development Index, all but one in sub-Saharan Africa?* If Caldwell is right, they should be prioritizing the new goals for universal literacy and secondary school attendance – Sustainable Development Goal 4 – above others and investing heavily in mass education.
What kinds of policies and programs should countries pursuing mass education have? They should:
Publicly commit to 100% secondary school enrollment and literacy for all boys and girls irrespective of household income
Legislate mandatory secondary school attendance with penalties for non-compliance
Increase government education spending per capita to the highest levels achieved by peer nations
Reward the bottom 40% of households for secondary school attendance and literacy gains through the tax and/or transfer systems
Ensure that children from the bottom 40% of households have access to the same quality of education as their higher income peers
Ensure that children from the bottom 40% of households have access to the same information about educational and career opportunities as their higher income peers
Achieve 100% internet access for all secondary school students
More than 40 years ago, Jack Caldwell predicted that the nature of the global society of the future would depend on the timing and pace of future fertility declines. Given the link between fertility decline and mass education he could just as easily have said that our future depends on how quickly our species is able to educate every one of its children to the same basic level.
Caldwell could not have foreseen the storm clouds of climate change and environmental degradation gathering on the horizon rendering his vision even more vital. But nor could he have foreseen the revolutions in technology and women’s empowerment that would put wind in the sails of the movement for mass education. The end result? There has never been greater urgency nor a better opportunity to harness education as “the single most potent force for human progress”.
*Countries scoring lowest on the Human Development Index in 2014 are Chad, Burundi, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Mozambique, Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, DRCongo, Gambia, Ethiopia, Malawi, Cote d’Ivoire, Afghanistan, Senegal, South Sudan, Djibouti, Sudan and Benin.
This article is in honor of Jack Caldwell (1928-2016), legendary demographer who uncovered the connection between mass education, fertility decline, health gains and human development.